Thursday, March 31, 2005


Taidu logic: brokering peace can lead to jail time.

Taidu on Taiwan is really devoid of reality sometimes. Take for instance the recent visit of the KMT 34 member delegation to the PRC, headed by Chiang Pin-kun (江丙坤), vice-chairman of the KMT.

PK Chiang is schedule to meet with Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council. This has been deemed by the PRC to be a historic “Party-to-party” meeting since 1949.

To make a long story short, in the mid 1920’s the KMT party expelled the Communist party from ROC political system. This started what is known as the Chinese Civil War. By 1949 the KMT retreated to Taiwan and the Communist established the PRC on the mainland. There has never been any resolution to this Civil War.

Sounds great. No? CCP recognizes the KMT, KMT recognizes the CCP, Strait Issue stabilizes and peace ensues.

This is too easy for the Strait Issue.

Now comes the Taidu fanatic from the Mainland Affairs Council Vice Chairman, Chiu Tai-san (邱太三) , following accusations the KMT had secret meeting in Thailand that help broker this historic event, claims any agreement between the KMT and CCP is punishable with a minimum sentence of 7 years in prison up to a maxium sentence of life in prison. In addition, according to the statute , violators can be fined up to NT$2 million (US$63,492).

The particular law in question is Article 5-1 of the Act Governing Relations Between Peoples of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area.

This is bad on so many levels.

What Chiu Tai-san finds offensive is the 10 point consensus between the CCP and the KMT. The consesus covers a number of issues and outlines areas of interest were the KMT and CCP could agree on. These include subjects like cross-strait charter flights, agricultural cooperation, protection for China-based Taiwanese business people, tourism, journalistic exchanges and the opening of the Chinese financial market.

The consensus points did not become laws in either PRC or ROC, these points are not even a treaty. It is just a symbolic gesture that the KMT and CCP now have common interest. The ground work for possible peace.

It is interesting to note that no one advocated jail time or a 2 million dollar fine when the President CSB (DPP) and James Soong (TSU), individuals from idealogical opposite parties, agreed to a 10 point consensus a few weeks ago.

Let us just forget the fact that the Taidu advocates within the DPP usually don’t even recognize ROC constitution, name, and anthem. Let alone recognize ROC civil laws.

Taidu leadership really are just paying the “peaceful resolution” of Strait Issue lip service, if all they can do is condemn KMT actions of this nature.

Taidu leadership really must be delusional if they feel provoking the PRC at every opportunity is the “dignified” solution to Strait Issue.

The 10 point consensus the KMT and CCP came to will not cause Taiwan lose any dignity. It is for the most part a potpourri of issues that have nothing to do with the sovereignty issue of ROC.

Face to face interaction like this one, is exactly what the PRC and ROC need to do to avoid war.

The government should be encouraging more interaction like this one, especially from the Taidu ridden political parties on Taiwan, instead of using scare tactic to keep ROC and PRC apart and away from the negotiating table.



Chi Mei Group founder Hsu Wen-lung (許文龍) Acknowledges "One China"

Those of us familiar with the Taishang community in PRC probably know about this story. To summarize Hsu Wen Lung was identified as an "unwelcome" Taidu advocate after CSB re-election in 2004. The connection was that the hospital used to treat CSB gunshot wound, caused by the alleged assassination, was owned by Hsu Wen Lung, who is also a long time friend of CSB.

Shortly after the PRC issued a statement to the effect that Taidu supporters like Hsu Wen Lung were no longer welcomed to invest in the Mainland. Many of Chi Mei bank loan applications were then denied or held in indefinite status of review on the mainland. Hsu Wen Lung even stepped down as head of the Chi Mei group in order to distance himself from the company, in order to preserve the business.

As this article illustrates, Hsu Wen Lung has powerful friends and is politically active on Taiwan.
Hsu is an entrepreneur with a strong sense of Taiwanese identity. During former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) administration, Hsu wrote to Lee asking when he would fulfill his promise to change the country's official name. Lee wrote back, telling him to learn from the Japanese shogun Tokugawa Ieyasu, and wait patiently for the right moment to act.

Later, in the run-up to the 2000 presidential election, Hsu was a key member of then-presidential candidate Chen's National Policy Advisory Committee, and was made a senior policy adviser to the president after Chen was elected.
However, Mr. Hsu seems to be doing a 180 on his political position on Taiwan with the following statements,
It is because people who dare to invest in the mainland are people who will not engage in Taiwan independence. Since we don't engage in Taiwan independence, the development of Chi Mei in the mainland will definitely become more prosperous.

I think both Taiwan and the mainland belong to one China, and the people on both sides of the strait are fellow countrymen.

I think Taiwan's economic development cannot separate from the mainland. Taiwan independence will only push Taiwan toward war and bring disaster to the people.
Even the DPP, a pan-Green party that Mr. Hsu supported are turning against him in his time of need.
What Hsu said was none-sense. What was he talking about? He’s such businessman-like. I really look down on him,” said DPP Lawmaker Chen Ching-jun.
Once agian this just illustrates even Taidu leadership will turn on Taidu supporters, instead of working on a viable solution to the Strait Issue.

It would seem only the PFP, a party with an antithesis ideology to Mr. Hsu, sympathizes with his plight.
PFP Lawmaker Chou Hsi-wei said, “It’s the government’s fault. The government failed to take care of the businessmen in China. They have to fully rely on their own.
Chou Hsi-wei quote echos in the Taishang community. Under the DPP stewardship, ROC doesn't seem to be concerned with all the needs of Taiwan's citizens. With billions of dollars at stake and millions of jobs at risk, Taidu leadership just ignores the fundimental issues and dismisses citizens when they step out of line.

It is time for Taiwan, especially the DPP administration, to wake up like Hsu Wen Lung.



When is hundreds of thousand a million on Taiwan?

Sometimes I wonder are the spin doctors in the DPP are so desperate for the Taidu cause that they need to spin facts so hard? Here is the latest spin about the 326 protest on Taiwan, from that unbias news media Taipei Times.

Crowd estimates confirm figure of a million marchers

As for the disputes over the turnout for the march, according to a survey
conducted by the alliance on March 28 and 29, about 5.5 percent of those polled
(1,293 people over 20 years of age) said that they joined in the march.
According to the Ministry of the Interior, there are about 16.74 million
people over 20 years old.

From these numbers, the alliance calculated that about 930,000 people participated in the historic event.
Initial reports had the participation levels at 500,000 by the ROC police. Mayor Ma later cited that the participation level was at 270,000. Most news outlet just cite "hundreds of thousands."

People familar with sampling know the greatest flaw in the process is getting a good sampling. Which is why there is an error factor known as standard deviation used in reporting populations derived from statistical extrapolation.

I don't know the protocol that was used to derive the sampling. But it is obvious that political rallies of this nature do not have random distribution of people of various ages. For the most part people will form clusters with friends or social groups on these marches. These groups will usually have people of the same demographics. So if you're unluck you might run into a group of pre-schoolers being pushed by their parents. Or you might run into a group of foreigners. Or a group of Japanese students. And for the truly fortunate there will be a group of highschool and college girls closely bunched together passing you by (One can dream).

Another obvious flaw given their sampling results, is that it can also be concluded that 94.5 of the population was under the age of 20. Unless my eyes were playing tricks on me most of the marchers were over 20 and not being pushed around in baby carriages.

Is the Ministry of the Interior is now playing the game of Chinese age vs. Western Age? Where Chinese age is usually 2 years older than the Western age (1 year for passing the first Chinese New Year and 1 year for the time in the womb). However, that is a blog for another day...when is 20 not really 20.

My opinion is that the crowd was on the lighter side of 500,000. I mean for pete sake the President asked people to bring their pets to this event. Are we so desperate that every cat and dog is counted to as well to reach one million participants?


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